Shell will increase emissions by 4% by 2030, new research by Global Climate Insights shows


  • Shell is on a collision course with ‘Paris’ and court ruling to decrease emissions by 45% by 2030
  • The findings contradict Dutch court ruling to decrease emissions by 45% by 2030, the Follow This climate resolutions, the IEA, and the IPCC, which all call for deep emission reductions.



Shell will increase its (net) CO2-emissions by 4% by 2030 (compared to 2019), according to in-depth research of Shell’s strategy by Global Climate Insights (GCI), published today. The findings contradict the Dutch court ruling, the Follow This climate resolutions, the IEA, the IPCC, which all call for deep emission reductions.

“We are shocked that Shell still wants to increase emissions until 2030, while claiming to be aligned with Paris,” responds Mark van Baal, founder of activist shareholder group Follow This. “We trust that responsible investors will increase the pressure on the board of Shell to truly commit to Paris by decreasing emissions, as required by the court, and requested by 30% of Shell’s investors who voted for the Follow This climate resolution.”

“Absolute emission reductions within this decade are crucial to have any chance to achieve the Paris Accord. Shell is still on a collision course with that goal. More and more investors recognise that reaching the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement is essential to protect all of their assets in the global economy from devastating climate change,’’ says Mark van Baal.

“This report highlights the need for investors to vote in favour of the Follow This climate resolution to be placed on the ballot during the upcoming AGM season’’ Responds Mark van Baal.

“This report shows that Shell does not take the IPCC report, IEA net zero report or the court’s decision seriously,’’ says Mark van Baal.

Not a guess anymore
Where the emissions will be in 2030 is “a guess,” answered Shell CEO Ben van Beurden during the shareholders’ meeting after questions by Follow This. After GCI’s research, it is no longer a guess; emissions will increase, which is incongruent with the Paris Accord and the court ruling.

GCI used Shell’s own climate transition targets and aspirations for market share in key fuels to estimate Shell’s emissions from operations and products (Scope 1, 2, and 3) in this decade and beyond (for instance, Shell’s Powering Progress report). Research was done by a team of four*, including a former Shell employee. Today, Global Climate Insights published the research in two reports. The first report analyses Shell’s GHG emissions (41 pages) and the second report assesses how Shell is positioned to thrive and grow in a zero emissions economy (35 pages). See key insights of the research below.

Dutch judge and Follow This separately request the same fair ask: align your strategy with the Paris Accord
In the Netherlands, in the historic court case of Friends of the Earth versus Shell, the judge ruled that Shell must decrease emissions by 45% by 2030. Shell’s consistent rejection of the Follow This climate resolution – that requests the same – was used as a crucial piece of evidence by Roger Cox, the lawyer of Friends of the Earth.

“Big Oil can no longer dismiss the crucial role it has to play in the fight against climate change, according to the judge,” said Mark van Baal.
Follow This will use the ruling to convince investors to vote in favor of its climate resolutions in 2022, as the judge and Follow This request the same fair ask.

For more information, read the report here or contact [email protected]

* Shu Ling Liauw, Lead Analyst | Rohan Bowater, Analyst | Marina Lou, Climate Communications | Dimitri Lafleur, Carbon Analyst